By: Matthew Weatherby
I’ll be frank. James Madison would have to walk a tightrope the size of a human hair to win this game. They have next to no shot, and it’s not a knock or disrespectful; it’s just the truth. With that being said, I did say that they had NEXT to no shot. So, what would the Dukes have to do to get the job done in Eugene Saturday night?
James Madison’s Path
I went thumbing through stats yesterday in search of James Madison’s path to win this game. I didn’t come up with much, but I did find a few stats with a strong correlation that could lead to a Dukes win. It all starts with game control.
Time of Possession. It’s not always the flashiest of stats, but it is a solid indicator of game control. James Madison ranks second in the country in time of possession. While Oregon ranks 39th in the country in time of possession. It is a substantial enough gap between the two to deem it relevant. That then begs the question: James Madison controls the game, but how do they do it?
They’ve controlled the game through the ground game on both sides of the ball. They are 5th in the country in rushing offense and second in the country in terms of their rushing defense. Compared to Oregon’s 14th-ranked rushing offense and 20th-ranked rushing defense. Again a somewhat substantial gap in terms of their season-long statistics that I deem to be relevant.
The problem for James Madison is the fact that Oregon is not a team like Troy (who just lost to Jacksonville State by the way); they will not have a talent advantage over Oregon. So if they follow that script exactly, they will still need a couple of “bounce of the ball” plays to go their way and allow them to steal some possessions.
To make a long story short, James Madison has to cut down on how long Oregon has the ball and how many possessions they have overall. If James Madison were to win this game, it would look something similar to Louisville’s week 8 win over Miami, where the Cardinals were able to cut down on Miami’s possessions.
But that won’t happen…
Why Oregon is going to roll
Talked about how James Madison needs turnovers in order to win this game, and Oregon is tied for 18th in the country in turnover margin. Meanwhile, James Madison is 76th in the country in margin. I called James Madison’s path thinner than a tightrope because of not only that, but the outside factors play heavily against them.
They are going to travel roughly 2,800 miles to Eugene. If you think that is easy, ask the Big 10 teams how easy those West Coast trips are. Not to mention Autzen Stadium is LOUD. Oh, plus Oregon is getting healthier and has its full attention on James Madison. There are zero outside factors that favor the Dukes.
Oh, but what about Oregon’s Coordinators? They are leaving to take different jobs. Yeah, so is James Madison’s Head Coach, Bob Chesney.
Oregon actually is not that much larger on the lines of scrimmage, like I had expected. But, they have more depth on the lines and more speed at the skill positions.
Closing Statement + Lines
In a way, I feel bad for James Madison. If they had gotten Ole Miss, some of those outside factors would have shifted. Plus, their game script would be a lot more successful against Ole Miss’s defense. But they didn’t so their Cinderella dies in Eugene on Saturday night.
Line: Oregon -21, JMU +1100 on the moneyline
Over/Under: 47.5
