By: Matthew Weatherby
For Georgia Tech, it is imperative not to play with your food this week. The Yellow Jackets are shipping it up to Boston this week to take on the Boston College Eagles in their penultimate ACC conference game. The Eagles come into the game with a 1-9 record, and they have earned that record, having lost 7 of them by at least 10+ points. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech has thrived this year; they are 8-1 on the year, along with 5-1 in conference. They are currently a part of a subset of 5 teams that have one conference loss in the ACC, which means that these last two conference games are all the more important. For Georgia Tech, it means they need to beat this Boston College team that has had a down year, since they have Pittsburgh looming next week, which also has only one conference loss.
What Georgia Tech needs to do
Get out to a lead and then lean on them. That idea is a winning formula for Georgia Tech, but it is also much easier to do sitting behind a keyboard on Friday than on the football field on Saturday. But that is where Georgia Tech’s strength is: they are an excellent running team. Offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner does an outstanding job at fooling the eyes of defenders with the large amount of motion that they use in their offense. When you pair that with Haynes King’s ability to run it provides a running attack that is unique to Georgia Tech.
In terms of defense, Georgia Tech will probably have two conflicting trains of thought. The first being it is typically a little bit more difficult to throw the ball in the cold, especially if the wind kicks up some as the forecast calls for. The second being, if that is true, which trend breaks for what team? Georgia Tech has the 98th-ranked rush defense in the country, while Boston College doesn’t even average 3 yards a carry on the season. So if the Yellow Jackets are able to stop what hasn’t gotten going this year for Boston College and make them one dimensional then it will play into their hands.
More passing for Boston College typically means quicker 3-and-outs, getting the ball back to an offense whose strength is running the football, and overall controlling the tempo of this game.
Path to a Boston College Upset
If that weakness vs weakness matchup flips and goes Boston College’s way, then it could create some problems for Georgia Tech on defense. Boston College has been a relatively consistent passing offense in terms of yardage, but turnovers have been an issue for quarterback Dylan Lonergan. If Boston College can create some balance on offense, then they might have a recipe for success.
The only problem is that Boston College will still have their work cut out for them. As Georgia Tech will bring the 13th-ranked rushing offense with them, and Boston College’s run defense is slotted right behind Georgia Tech’s at 100th best in the country. With that stat in mind, I am just not sure how much of a path Boston College has to an upset. They have one, it is just incredibly narrow. As a reminder, Boston College did have Notre Dame on the ropes, somewhat, a couple of weeks ago.
Final thoughts + Betting/Analytics
This one feels like the Yellow Jackets should escape with relative ease. Their rushing offense against Boston College’s defense is just too glaring a margin to ignore. It also means Georgia Tech should be able to dictate tempo. Give me something in the neighborhood of 31-13 Georgia Tech wins.
According to ESPN’s matchup predictor, Georgia Tech currently has an 87.3% chance to beat Boston College on Saturday. Georgia Tech is a -16.5 point favorite according to FanDuel sportsbook, with the over/under set at 59.5 for the game’s total points.
